Companies holding bitcoin are seeing their premiums shrink, while an NYDIG analyst warns of potential future instability.
According to an analysis by the New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG), the Bitcoin treasury company sector could face a particularly turbulent period in the coming months.
Greg Cipolaro, NYDIG’s global head of research, highlighted how the gap between the stock prices and the net asset value (NAV) of major Bitcoin-accumulating companies—such as Metaplanet and Strategy—continues to narrow, despite the asset reaching new all-time highs.
Cipolaro noted that the causes of this compression are multiple: investor anxiety over upcoming share unlocks that will increase market supply, changes in corporate objectives by management teams, tangible increases in share issuance, investor profit-taking, and limited differentiation across treasury strategies.
According to NYDIG’s global head of research, a “bumpy ride may be ahead” for corporate Bitcoin treasuries, as many are awaiting mergers or financing deals to go public, which could trigger “a substantial wave of sales” from existing shareholders.
The expert emphasized that many companies in the sector, including KindlyMD and Twenty One Capital, are trading at prices equal to or below their recent fundraising values. For Cipolaro, a drop in stock prices “could accelerate sales once the shares become freely tradable.”
When shares of a treasury company trade below their NAV, “the most direct course of action would be a share buyback,” Cipolaro said, a strategy aimed at boosting stock prices by reducing supply.
The boom of Bitcoin treasury companies
Corporate Bitcoin treasuries have become the latest Wall Street trend, raising billions of dollars over the past year. The market has witnessed exponential growth in these companies, which have attracted significant capital by betting on bitcoin’s price growth as a corporate store of value.
Holdings of bitcoin-accumulating companies peaked this year at around 840,000 BTC. Strategy holds 76%, or 636,505 bitcoins, of the total, while the rest is distributed among 32 other companies, according to a CryptoQuant report.
