Blockchain data reveals a strong concentration of gains on the prediction market platform, with $3.7 billion in the hands of a few.
The distribution of profits on Polymarket shows that around 70% of the more than 1.7 million trading addresses recorded losses, while just 0.04% captured over 70% of total profits, amounting to $3.7 billion. The data comes from an analysis conducted by blockchain analyst DeFi Oasis.
The investigation examined transactional data to calculate realized profits and losses across the platform’s entire user base. The results show that only 30% of addresses closed in profit.
The largest group of profitable traders earned between $0 and $1,000, accounting for 24.56% of all addresses but generating just 0.86% of total profits. To earn more than $1,000, traders needed to rank in the top 4.9% of participants.
The figures highlight a sharp disparity: 668 addresses with profits exceeding $1 million accounted for 71% of all realized gains, while only 2,551 traders earned between $100,000 and $1 million.
On the other side, more than 1.1 million addresses—63.5% of the total—suffered losses between $0 and $1,000. In 149 cases, losses exceeded $1 million per address.
DeFi Oasis clarified that the calculation methodology accounts for total proceeds from sales, redeemed amounts, and purchase costs, excluding unrealized gains or losses. Traders holding large open positions may therefore display significantly negative realized returns despite potential on-paper profits.
This asymmetric distribution reflects broader dynamics in prediction markets, where professional traders and sophisticated algorithms systematically extract value from retail participants.
