The bank’s analysts are observing a shift in the Bitcoin market, with specific catalysts that could drive the cryptocurrency higher.
According to a recent JPMorgan report shared with select industry outlets, Bitcoin could continue its rise at the expense of gold in the second half of 2025. Analysts led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou highlighted that the so-called “debasement trade” — the strategy of investing in gold and Bitcoin as a hedge against the weakening of fiat currencies — has undergone a change in direction.
“What began as a parallel run has turned into a zero-sum game between the two assets,” the analysts explained. “Between mid-February and mid-April, gold rallied at Bitcoin’s expense, while over the past three weeks we’ve seen the opposite: Bitcoin rising as gold loses ground.”
Since its peak on April 22, gold has declined by nearly 8%, while over the same period, Bitcoin has gained 18%. This shift is also reflected in investor flows, with capital moving out of gold ETFs and into spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Futures market data shows a similar trend, with declining positions in gold and increasing interest in Bitcoin futures. Notably, at the start of the year, the situation was completely reversed, with gold rallying while Bitcoin struggled alongside other risk assets.
Specific catalysts driving Bitcoin’s growth
The report emphasizes that Bitcoin’s recent outperformance is not solely due to gold’s weakness but also driven by sector-specific factors:
- Companies like Strategy and Metaplanet are increasing their Bitcoin purchases. Strategy, in particular, plans to raise an additional $84 billion for acquisitions by 2027, having already reached 60% of its original target.
- Some U.S. states have begun adding Bitcoin to their reserves. New Hampshire now allows up to 5% of state assets to be invested in Bitcoin and gold.
“As more U.S. states consider adding Bitcoin to their strategic reserves, this could prove to be a sustained positive catalyst for Bitcoin,” the analysts wrote. Given the weakening of gold prices and these industry-specific drivers, JPMorgan’s analysts see greater growth potential for Bitcoin in the second half of the year.
