U.S. elections and geopolitical tensions could have a positive impact on Bitcoin and gold, according to JPMorgan.
On October 2nd, JPMorgan analysts published a report indicating that both Bitcoin and gold could experience growth due to increasing geopolitical tensions and the upcoming US presidential elections. The document outlines how geopolitical risks, combined with concerns about monetary devaluation, could create potentially favorable conditions for both assets.
According to the team of analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Donald Trump’s reelection could lead to a potential price increase for both assets, given the adoption of policies such as 100% tariffs and fiscal expansion, which could intensify geopolitical tensions and raise concerns about national debt.
Comparative analysis of 2016 elections
The report suggests that if markets react similarly to the 2016 elections, a Trump reelection could result in higher yields for US Treasuries, a stronger dollar, and strong performance of US stocks, particularly in the banking sector. The document notes that during that period, US Treasury yields for five-year bonds saw a 1% increase, the Dollar Index (DXY) increased by 8%, and US stock markets recorded a performance of 6%.
Divergent views on Bitcoin
Despite the outlook presented by JPMorgan, there is no unanimous consensus regarding Bitcoin’s role in a similar economic landscape. A recent analysis by British bank Standard Chartered highlighted that, although Bitcoin cannot yet be seen as a reliable asset against geopolitical threats, it continues to attract interest among some investors who wish to hedge against global economic uncertainties.
