The lack of Bitcoin allocation could represent a greater risk for nations than the investment itself, according to Fidelity analyst Matt Hogan.
In 2025, several states could begin including Bitcoin in their national strategic reserves. This emerges from the latest Fidelity Digital Assets report, which outlines a scenario of strong growth for the crypto market in the near future.
According to Matt Hogan, research analyst at Fidelity Digital Assets, central banks, sovereign funds, and government treasuries could soon follow the example of countries like Bhutan and El Salvador, which have already obtained “substantial returns in a relatively short period” from their Bitcoin investment.
The analysis highlights how the decision not to invest in Bitcoin could paradoxically represent a greater risk than the investment itself. This scenario is determined by growing challenges such as inflation, fiat currency devaluation, and increasingly heavy fiscal deficits.
Hogan also suggests that if the United States were to proceed with their plan for a strategic Bitcoin reserve, other states would likely begin accumulating in secret. The analyst explained:
“No nation has an incentive to announce these plans, as doing so could influence more buyers and drive up the price.”
The report doesn’t limit itself to national reserve prospects. Fidelity also predicts greater diffusion of structured financial products linked to digital assets, emphasizing the success already seen with spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ether. For 2025, tokenization is also predicted to emerge as a “killer application,” with on-chain value growth from 14 to 30 billion dollars by the end of the year.
The report also mentions some technical aspects related to Bitcoin. Fidelity highlights how the ecosystem continues to develop various layer-2 solutions to improve network scalability. In particular, BitVM2, an evolution of the previous BitVM, and Ark, a protocol that introduces a shared UTXO system, are noted. The debate within the Bitcoin community regarding the next soft fork is also emphasized, with particular attention to covenants. The two proposals analyzed in the report are OP_CHECKTEMPLATEVERIFY (CTV/BIP-119) and OP_CAT (BIP-420). Finally, there’s also space for mining: the birth of the Ocean mining pool is mentioned, along with the release of Datum, a protocol aimed at decentralizing mining, following a philosophy similar to that of StratumV2.
