According to NYDIG’s Greg Cipolaro, the parallel movement between bitcoin and software stocks reflects a shared exposure to macroeconomic factors, not a structural convergence.
Greg Cipolaro, Head of Research at NYDIG, published a note challenging the narrative that bitcoin is behaving as a proxy for U.S. technology stocks. Over the past week, bitcoin rallied in parallel with American software stocks, fueling the idea of a structural convergence between the two assets. Cipolaro considers this conclusion “overrated.”
According to Cipolaro, the tandem movement “more plausibly reflects a shared exposure to the current macro regime, particularly long-duration, liquidity-sensitive risk assets, rather than being evidence of structural convergence between bitcoin and software stocks.” In other words, both are reacting to the same macroeconomic stimuli without any structural link between them.
The NYDIG analysis highlights that bitcoin’s correlation with software stocks has increased on a 90-day rolling basis since the all-time high above $126,000 recorded in early October. However, during the same period, bitcoin’s correlations with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq also increased, which indicates, according to Cipolaro, that “the change is not isolated to software stocks.” The most significant data point is that, statistically, only one quarter of bitcoin’s price movements is explained by its correlation with the equity market, while at least 75% of its movements remain influenced by drivers external to traditional indices. As Cipolaro writes: “the majority of bitcoin’s price movement remains unexplained by equity markets.”
Cipolaro notes that bitcoin does not appear to be priced as a hedge against macroeconomic conditions, which would explain “the persistent frustration around Bitcoin’s failure to act as gold, despite the digital gold label.” Traders, he adds, seem to be allocating capital along a risk curve, rather than buying bitcoin based on a “distinct monetary thesis.”
Despite this, NYDIG emphasizes that bitcoin maintains its own market structure and economic drivers: network activity, adoption trends, regulatory and policy developments all differentiate it from other assets. “This differentiation supports Bitcoin’s role as a portfolio diversifier,” Cipolaro writes. “Although cross-asset correlations with equity markets are currently elevated, they remain far from being the determining factor for bitcoin’s returns.”
