Two Democratic lawmakers introduced the BETS OFF Act after several accounts on Polymarket placed suspicious bets on the US-Israel attack on Iran.
Two members of the U.S. Congress, Texas Representative Greg Casar and Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy, introduced on Tuesday the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions Act, known as the BETS OFF Act. The bill was drafted in response to what the two Democrats describe as “government corruption” linked to betting on prediction market platforms.
The measure was announced after several accounts on Polymarket had placed bets described as “highly unusual” on the outbreak of a conflict between the US and Israel against Iran. On March 4, Senator Murphy had stated that it was likely that people with “insider information” about President Donald Trump‘s plans to bomb Iran had placed those bets.
“We should not live in a country where someone sitting in the situation room, making decisions about invasion or bombing, decisions of war and peace, of life and death, could be influenced by the fact that they have hundreds of thousands of dollars riding on that decision,” Casar said.
The BETS OFF Act is part of a broader legislative push against prediction markets. The previous week, California Senator Adam Schiff had introduced the DEATH BETS Act, aimed at preventing prediction market platforms from listing contracts on events related to war, terrorism, assassinations, and the deaths of individuals. Also on the regulatory front, the Arizona Attorney General filed charges against Kalshi for “illegal gambling.”
At the time of the announcement, Polymarket continued to offer bets on the outcomes of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, including wagers on a potential deployment of American ground forces in the country, possible ceasefires, and changes to Iranian leadership. In a statement on Middle Eastern markets, Polymarket defended its operations, stating: “The promise of prediction markets is to harness collective wisdom to create accurate and unbiased forecasts on the most important events for society. That capability is particularly valuable in harrowing moments such as this one.” Kalshi, on the other hand, offers Iran-related contracts limited to topics such as a possible nuclear deal with the US or potential visits by Trump or other elected officials to the country, excluding specific military actions.
The controversy intensified further after a military correspondent for the Times of Israel stated that he had received death threats following his reporting on the date an Iranian missile struck Israel, with the explicit motivation of settling an open bet on Polymarket.
