The digital asset regulation bill advances in the Senate, but the political balance between parties remains the main risk factor.
The odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in the United States have risen to approximately 68%, according to prediction market data, reaching their highest level in recent weeks.
The key turning point came from within the Senate Banking Committee, chaired by Senator Tim Scott, who stated that the bill has reached what lawmakers call the “red zone” – the critical review phase known as markup. This phase is expected to take place by May 2026. In the preceding weeks, approval odds on platforms such as Polymarket had hovered between 63% and 65%.
Another element that has contributed to the optimism is the reaching of a compromise on rules related to stablecoins, particularly regarding the management of yields. This issue had previously slowed negotiations. The agreement also aligns with earlier regulatory initiatives, including the GENIUS Act, pointing toward a more harmonized framework for digital asset regulation.
However, the primary source of uncertainty remains political. As Alex Thorn of Galaxy Digital has noted, the race for Senate control is extremely tight and could have a direct impact on crypto regulation. The Senate Banking Committee could be chaired by Democrats or Republicans depending on election outcomes. If Democrats were to take control, figures such as Elizabeth Warren – a long-standing critic of cryptocurrencies – could assume the committee chairmanship, significantly slowing or killing the bill. Prediction markets place the Senate race at nearly 50-50.
It is precisely this uncertainty that is pushing some lawmakers to accelerate the process. Among those advocating for swift action is Republican Senator Thom Tillis, who has stated that the bill should be sent to markup as soon as Congress returns from its May recess. Senator Tim Scott, for his part, is said to be working to consolidate Republican support before initiating further dialogue with Democrats. The CLARITY Act has already secured bipartisan backing and passed the House of Representatives, demonstrating genuine momentum.
The significance of the CLARITY Act lies in its ability to resolve one of the most paralyzing ambiguities facing the sector: crypto companies in the United States currently struggle to determine whether they fall under securities law, commodities law, or other regulations. A functioning law would establish clearer rules, facilitate business development, and allow users to better understand the associated risks. As previously analyzed in relation to the CLARITY Act and Novogratz’s predictions, the window for passage remains narrow and the global competitiveness of the US in the digital asset space depends largely on the outcome of this legislative process.
