Key crypto legislation in the USA faces an increasingly tight timeline, but a committee action in May could keep it alive.
The Clarity Act, the bill that would establish a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies in the United States, remains uncertain but is not yet out of the game. According to sources close to the negotiations and a Senate official, April now appears to be a lost month for the measure, but a Senate committee hearing in May could keep the legislation alive, provided a final vote is reached by July.
The main obstacle at the moment concerns Republican Senator Thom Tillis, who continues to negotiate with banking industry representatives over concerns related to stablecoin yield programs. A Senate official told CoinDesk that a further delay of a couple of weeks to allow Tillis to conclude these discussions would not yet push the work past the point of no return. The same official clarified that previous negotiations over protections for decentralized finance (DeFi) are effectively closed, removing one of the main barriers to a committee vote.
The legislative calendar leaves very little room: the Senate will essentially leave Washington in August and enter campaign mode ahead of the November midterm elections. Before then, the chamber has roughly a dozen scheduled working weeks in Washington, with competing priorities including the battle over Department of Homeland Security funding, tensions over the war with Iran, the debate on voter identification, and the nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve. If the bill clears the Senate Banking Committee, the text would need to be merged with the version already approved by the Senate Agriculture Committee – and this merging phase is precisely the time buffer that current delays are eating into.
Odds of passage in 2026 are estimated at around 50-50, and possibly lower, according to a research note that investment firm Galaxy is preparing to publish this week. “The uncertainty does not stem from a single issue, but from the enormous number of unresolved questions that must be addressed in sequence under severe time pressure,” the note reads. Galaxy had previously highlighted specific risks related to the bill’s text. A single additional clash between negotiators could prove fatal, although the post-election period offers a residual low-probability window: the year-end “lame duck” session could represent one last attempt.
