The model puts Bitcoin at up to $840,000 within five years, combining three assumptions: 40% of portfolios involved, an average 4% allocation and a market multiplier of three.
River published an analysis on September 2 on potential Bitcoin inflows. The calculation starts from the $333 trillion in global financial wealth estimated by BCG for 2025. The figure measures a stock of financial assets, not liquidity ready for investment.
The first step applies two assumptions to global wealth: within three to five years, 20-40% of portfolios allocate 2-4% to Bitcoin. The resulting range is $1.3 trillion to $5.3 trillion. The calculation assumes that portfolios’ numerical share matches their share of wealth. It also treats a target weighting, expressed at the final value, as net money entering the market: if the price changes that weighting, the calculation becomes circular.
River then applies a multiplier of three: inflows would produce an increase of $3.9 trillion to $15.9 trillion. The final market capitalizations of $5.5 trillion to $17.5 trillion imply the addition of an initial base of about $1.6 trillion. River translates the result into $250,000 to $840,000 per bitcoin. The highest scenario requires every assumption to reach its upper limit.
The adoption thesis starts with the Bitwise/VettaFi 2026 survey of 299 US financial advisers. In 2025, 32% allocated cryptocurrencies in client accounts, compared with 22% in 2024. Among non-allocators, 18% said they would definitely or probably begin in 2026, while 38% remained uncertain. The survey covers all cryptocurrencies; River assumes Bitcoin is their main component.
BlackRock considers a 1-2% allocation reasonable for investors able to bear its risk and warns that above 2%, the contribution to risk grows disproportionately. The document therefore supports the lower limit selected by River, while the 4% allocation in the highest scenario exceeds that threshold. Spot ETFs expanded advisers’ access through a regulated channel.
The multiplier is the most uncertain step. Economists Xavier Gabaix and Ralph Koijen estimated that one dollar invested in US equities increases their value by about five dollars. River reports historical ratios for Bitcoin of 4.5, 3.3 and 3.1, and selects three for the projection, without explaining in the article how it estimated historical inflows. The equity figure does not establish a permanent coefficient for Bitcoin.
